Cavececo forecasts 15% growth for Venezuelan shopping centres in 2027

Venezuela’s shopping centres expect growth of 15% in 2027, according to Alfredo Cohen, president of the Venezuelan Chamber of Shopping Centres (Cavececo) and CEO of Grupo Sambil. The assessment, presented at the trade body’s congress and reported by Últimas Noticias on 6 November, combines expectations of retail expansion with a favourable view of changes to tax administration.

A forecast to inform planning

Cohen described steady growth in retail activity and offered a positive outlook for the end of 2026 and the next fiscal year. The 15% forecast is the headline figure in the assessment and a useful reference point for franchise businesses considering locations in Venezuelan shopping centres.

The figure should be understood as a trade body’s forecast for 2027, not a result already achieved. Nor should it be applied automatically to a brand’s sales or an individual outlet’s performance: a shopping centre forecast does not guarantee growth for every business operating within those centres.

For franchisors and franchisees, the announcement provides a starting point for reviewing plans, but it does not replace an assessment of a specific location. Any decision to open an outlet requires weighing the broader outlook against the conditions at the premises, the investment required and the operational capacity of the proposed business.

Tax simplification features in the assessment

One issue Cohen highlighted was the work of the National Integrated Customs and Tax Administration Service (Seniat). The Cavececo president welcomed its new guidelines, particularly what he described as the abolition of the tax noticeboard requirement.

According to the explanation reported by Últimas Noticias, this noticeboard required retailers to process and keep track of around 20 permits, with dedicated staff needed to maintain it. Cohen viewed its removal as a welcome easing of the administrative burden on retailers.

This is relevant to franchise businesses because it affects outlets’ administrative tasks. However, the trade body’s assessment should be distinguished from the legal scope of each obligation. Simplifying a document display or management system should not, in itself, be taken to mean that retailers’ tax obligations have been removed.

The practical recommendation is to check with the person responsible for accounting which documents and procedures apply to each outlet before changing compliance routines. This allows businesses to benefit from simplification without assuming that other requirements have also been abolished.

International brands support the positive outlook

In his address, Cohen also pointed to international brands’ interest in expanding their presence in Venezuela. He mentioned H&M’s second store in the country, scheduled for November, alongside expansion plans by the Inditex Group and the forthcoming arrival of a French sporting goods and equipment chain.

These examples form part of the context behind Cavececo’s positive view of retail activity. Nevertheless, it is important to distinguish broad announcements from projects for which operational details have already been released.

In H&M’s case, Descifrado reported on 5 November that the opening at Sambil Valencia is scheduled for 21 November 2026. The operation is linked to Hola Moda, the brand’s franchise partner in Central America, the Caribbean and Venezuela. That relationship provides a concrete example of franchise involvement in the retail developments Cohen mentioned.

What to consider before committing to an investment

Cavececo’s assessment brings together two developments worth monitoring: a growth forecast for 2027 and a favourable view of administrative simplification. Both can inform planning, provided businesses maintain a clear distinction between expectations, company announcements and current legal obligations.

Practical takeaway: before committing to an opening, test the trade body’s forecast against the financial projections for the specific outlet and confirm the applicable tax requirements. Retail optimism is a useful reference point; the decision must rest on the viability of each franchise.