Demand for franchises in southern Russia falls by 40–45%

By September 2026, demand for franchise purchases in southern Russia had fallen by 40–45% compared with the same period a year earlier. Anna Rozhdestvenskaya, head of the franchise directory franshiza.ru, gave this estimate in an interview with RBC TV South published on 21 September. For the region’s franchising sector, this marks a continuation of the declining interest in new ventures seen in 2025.

What regional and national figures show

According to Rozhdestvenskaya, southern Russia is following the national trend: interest in starting a franchise business weakened noticeably in 2026. The estimated decline of 40–45% refers specifically to demand, rather than the number of businesses operating, franchise networks’ revenue or the number of agreements signed. These distinctions matter when assessing the state of the sector: reduced interest among prospective buyers does not, in itself, reveal how many new outlets are still opening.

National figures also point to a downturn, although they cover a different period and measure. Forbes reported on 25 September, citing Businessmens.ru, that the number of franchise enquiries in January–July 2026 was 30% lower than a year earlier. This figure cannot be compared directly with the estimate for southern Russia: the geographical scope, timeframe and definitions of demand differ.

For comparison, figures previously published by RBC Krasnodar showed that demand for franchise purchases in southern regions fell by 18% in 2025. At the same time, the number of new outlet openings continued to grow, rising by 2–3%. Last year’s figures therefore already showed that falling demand and growth in openings can occur simultaneously. It would be inappropriate to assume that the same trend in openings continued into 2026 without fresh data.

Why the summer upturn did not last

Rozhdestvenskaya links weaker demand to several factors. These include declining purchasing power, the appeal of bank deposits as a place to hold capital, and high lending rates. She explains that some funds which might otherwise have been used to launch businesses are remaining in deposit accounts.

This is an expert assessment, not a quantified breakdown of the causes of the decline. The published material does not specify how much of the fall in demand can be attributed to each factor. The available figures therefore do not establish any one factor as the main cause.

According to Rozhdestvenskaya, there was a brief revival of interest in franchises in early summer 2026. However, it quickly faded amid fuel shortages, RBC Krasnodar reported. In the Forbes article, she also linked the end of the upturn to the fuel crisis and attacks on logistics warehouses.

The sequence of events is important when assessing the situation: a brief period of growing interest did not develop into a sustained recovery. The information presented in the September publications provides no basis yet for saying that demand has returned to the previous year’s levels.

Which sectors stand out in southern Russia

Despite the overall downturn, the region retains its own demand patterns. In her interview with RBC TV South, Rozhdestvenskaya identified food retail and businesses catering for children among the core sectors. She also highlighted the development of hotel franchises, entertainment ventures and various infrastructure-related concepts.

According to the expert, southern regions are quick to adopt emerging trends in franchising. The drive to offer distinctive formats is particularly evident in food service: in resort towns, entrepreneurs aim not only to meet common needs but also to surprise visitors and attract additional footfall.

However, interest in new concepts does not mean that entry costs are falling. Rozhdestvenskaya noted that the cost of launching a food-service franchise had risen substantially over the past year. She estimated that opening a fast-food franchise requires capital starting at around RUB 3–4 million, depending on the size of the premises. This is an indicative figure, not a budget that applies to every chain or location.

Last year’s picture within food service was also mixed. According to RBC Krasnodar, demand for these franchises in southern Russia fell by 4% in 2025, with Japanese food and takeaway coffee concepts seeing the sharpest falls in enquiries. These figures describe the previous year, but do not establish which concepts are leading or lagging in 2026.

What to consider when choosing a franchise

Buyers’ priorities are also changing nationally. In the September Forbes article, Rozhdestvenskaya noted that prospective franchisees were more interested in brand reliability, company stability, the financial model and the payback period than in the particular business sector on offer.

For those involved in franchising, this is a reason to treat regional figures as context rather than as a ready-made basis for an investment decision. An estimate of demand cannot replace a cost assessment for a specific outlet, and the investment threshold cited by the expert does not mean that every franchise can be launched within that budget.

Practical takeaway: before buying a franchise, request an up-to-date start-up budget, scrutinise the payback calculations and assess the borrowing burden separately. Against a backdrop of falling demand, the verifiable financial fundamentals of an individual venture matter more than the popularity of its format.