Russian foodservice loan arrears reach 24.3 billion roubles: risks for franchisees

Overdue debt among Russian foodservice businesses reached 24.3 billion roubles as of 1 September 2026. According to an HF.ru report published on 6 November, this was the highest level since records began in February 2018. For the franchise sector, the figures are primarily a warning: a recognisable brand and established operating standards do not remove the financial risks facing an individual restaurant.

Arrears are rising, putting financial resilience under pressure

According to the figures cited by HF.ru, foodservice loan arrears increased by 1.25 billion roubles in August and by 27% over the year. Total outstanding loans to foodservice businesses stood at 184 billion roubles. Overdue debt therefore accounted for 13.2% of that total.

These figures cover the entire foodservice sector, not just franchised restaurants. The report does not provide a separate estimate of franchisees’ debt. It would therefore be misleading to apply this arrears rate to franchise networks or claim that franchised outlets face greater difficulties than independent businesses.

Nevertheless, the sector’s overall debt burden provides important context for anyone considering a restaurant franchise in Russia. If the opening is to be financed through borrowing, the prospective owner needs to assess the repayment schedule against both projected revenue and essential running costs. Reaching a particular turnover does not, in itself, establish whether there will be enough cash to service the loan on time.

The report discusses rising debt against a backdrop of declining customer numbers and higher operating costs. For a prospective franchisee, this is a reason to stress-test the financial plan against a less favourable scenario rather than treat sales forecasts as guaranteed results.

Businesses are still opening, but the measures must not be confused

Between January and September 2026, 28,000 companies and individual entrepreneurs registered in Russia’s foodservice sector were formally closed. According to HF.ru, this was 15% more than in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, 32,200 new companies and individual entrepreneurs were registered.

New registrations therefore outnumbered closures. However, this does not mean that the financial performance of existing restaurants improved. Registering a new business and keeping an operating restaurant able to pay its rent, wages and loan repayments are different measures.

As of 1 October, the sector had 221,600 active business entities. Separately, the publication gives an estimate of the number of outlets: around 223,800 in July, down 7.8% year on year.

These figures cannot be compared directly. One company may operate several outlets, and the reporting dates differ. For those involved in franchising, the lesson is to read the statistics carefully: business registration data are not a substitute for restaurant-level figures, while national totals do not reveal the position of a particular chain or location.

Interest in franchises has fallen, but this is not a measure of closures

HF.ru also reports a decline in interest in foodservice franchises: the measure fell by 43% during the first eight months of 2026. In September, applications to open franchised outlets were down 50% compared with the same month a year earlier.

These are indicators of demand for franchise opportunities, not counts of restaurant closures or terminated agreements. Nor can they be used to calculate an individual franchise’s chances of success. Their practical significance lies elsewhere: when assessing a network’s expansion prospects, it is no longer safe to assume that the previous flow of prospective franchisees will continue.

The report cites Rostic’s as an example of a major chain changing its strategy. In September 2026, the company stopped recruiting new franchisees. Around 1,300 restaurants operated under the brand in more than 140 cities. This fact alone does not establish a link between the chain’s decision and the sector’s overall loan arrears.

For a prospective franchisee, it is important to distinguish between the availability of a franchise opportunity, the size of the brand and the financial prospects of the proposed outlet. A large restaurant count demonstrates the scale of a network, but does not promise profitability for a new restaurant at the chosen premises.

What to recalculate before signing an agreement

A franchise can offer an entrepreneur a recognisable brand, established opening procedures and the benefits of centralised purchasing. However, as HF.ru notes, equipment loans, rent, payroll and other monthly payments remain the restaurant owner’s responsibility.

Assessing the project should therefore begin with a list of unavoidable costs. Establish in advance which payments the agreement requires, how often the chain changes its standards and who pays for any new equipment those changes require. Supplier selection rules and the costs of closing the outlet are equally important.

The next step is to test the figures against lower-than-expected revenue. This scenario helps show how much cash would remain after essential payments and which obligations would still have to be met regardless of customer numbers. It is not a forecast of falling sales, but a way to assess how much financial pressure the business could withstand before committing funds.

Practical takeaway: before buying a restaurant franchise, assess not only the opening budget but also the outlet’s ability to meet its obligations if revenue falls. Sector-wide debt figures are a reason for more rigorous financial analysis, not an automatic reason to reject a franchise.