Franchise openings in southern Russia rose by 2–3%

In southern Russia, declining interest in buying franchises has not yet translated into fewer new openings. According to figures cited by RBC Caucasus, demand for franchises in the southern regions fell by 18% in 2025, while the number of new outlets opening rose by 2–3%. With demand weakening further in 2026, this divergence matters to the franchise sector: enquiries from prospective buyers and actual business launches reveal different aspects of the market.

Openings increased as demand fell

The rise in openings in 2025 is a distinct finding that should not be lost amid broader reports of falling demand. The southern regions ended the year with a 2–3% increase in new franchise openings, even though demand for franchises fell by 18% over the same period.

These figures are not contradictory. Demand reflects interest in buying a franchise, whereas openings represent businesses that have actually launched. The two cannot be equated directly or used interchangeably. To assess a particular network, it is important to understand exactly what its statistics measure: enquiries, signed agreements or outlets starting to trade.

However, the figures cited by RBC do not reveal which networks drove the growth in openings or how that growth was distributed across the southern regions. The report also provides no breakdown between first-time franchise buyers and existing franchisees. There is therefore no basis for attributing the positive result to any single expansion model.

Nor does an increase in openings, on its own, establish that the total number of trading outlets has grown. That calculation would require closure figures, which the research presented does not provide. Still less does the figure automatically indicate higher revenue or profits for franchisees.

What had changed by September 2026

An RBC Caucasus article published on 21 September 2026 offers a more recent assessment of buyer interest. In an interview with RBC TV South, Anna Rozhdestvenskaya, head of the franchise directory franshiza.ru, said that by September, demand for franchises in southern Russia had fallen by 40–45% compared with the equivalent period in 2025.

In her assessment, the southern regions are following the national trend. Rozhdestvenskaya linked the decline to falling purchasing power and high interest rates on bank deposits. Those rates are attracting some of the money that might previously have gone towards starting a business or buying a franchise.

She also noted a brief revival in demand in early summer 2026. According to her, it quickly stalled because of fuel shortages. However, the material presented contains no information on how this episode affected actual openings.

The growth in launches recorded in 2025 therefore cannot be assumed to have continued into 2026. The research allows a comparison of last year's openings with last year's demand, alongside a separate, later assessment of buyer interest. It provides no basis for claiming either that openings are still growing or that growth has already stopped.

Food service: the overall figures conceal differences

The 2025 data separately identify demand for food-service franchises, which fell by 4% in the southern regions. The most marked declines in enquiries were seen in Japanese cuisine and takeaway coffee concepts.

This is an important distinction for prospective franchisees. The overall trend in franchise demand does not apply equally to every format. Even within food service, the information points to differences between concepts, although no precise figures are given for Japanese cuisine or takeaway coffee.

At the same time, fewer enquiries should not be treated as evidence that existing businesses in these categories are unprofitable. The research contains no data on their financial performance, customer numbers or payback periods. Similarly, the more moderate decline in demand for food-service franchises overall does not mean that every such purchase carried less risk.

For the franchise sector, precise wording matters: buyer interest, network expansion and the economics of an individual business each need to be examined separately.

How to use these figures when choosing a franchise

The practical value of these statistics lies not in choosing between an optimistic and a pessimistic outlook, but in identifying questions to ask the franchisor. If a network reports growth, a prospective franchisee should clarify the comparison period, geographical coverage and what the measure actually represents: enquiries, franchise sales, openings or the total number of trading outlets.

The next step is to request separate figures for openings and closures, along with performance data for comparable outlets. Ideally, the discussion should focus on the region and format in which you plan to operate: the overall trend across southern Russia is no substitute for assessing a specific business opportunity.

The practical takeaway is that the 2–3% rise in openings in 2025 shows that new outlets were launching even as demand weakened. But a decision to buy a franchise should rest on verifiable data from the particular network and the financial viability of the chosen location, rather than a single headline figure.