China’s Restaurant Chain Share Reaches 25%: 2026 Franchise Report Focuses on Outlet Performance and Partnership Quality

As China’s restaurant franchise sector expands, the quality of its operations is coming under closer scrutiny. On 21 September, the China Restaurant Franchise Development Report 2026 was released at the 2026 China Restaurant Brand and Franchise Development Forum in Guangzhou. The report highlights the growing prevalence of chains and diverging growth rates among brands of different sizes, while placing greater emphasis on individual outlet performance and the durability of commercial partnerships.

Chain penetration rises, but market figures measure different things

According to coverage published on 21 September, the report was jointly released by the Hongcan Industry Research Institute and Shanghai Zhongshen Law Firm. Tang Xin, a partner at Hongcan and director of the institute, presented its findings at the forum.

The report shows that the share of Chinese restaurants operating as chains rose from 15% in 2020 to 25% in 2025, an increase of 10 percentage points over five years. Hongcan’s data estimates put the size of China’s restaurant franchise market at RMB 761 billion in 2025, with a forecast of RMB 799.1 billion for 2026.

These figures should be considered separately: chain penetration measures how widespread chain operations are, while franchise market size is a separate estimate. In particular, RMB 799.1 billion is a forecast for 2026, not a confirmed full-year result. Nor can it be used directly to assess the profit potential of an individual franchise opportunity.

Mid-sized brands grow faster as small chains face pressure

The report identifies clear differences in performance between brands grouped by outlet count. In 2025, the number of outlets belonging to brands with 501–1,000 locations grew by 32.6% year on year. For brands with 101–500 locations, the increase was 28.3%, while the outlet count for brands with 3–10 locations fell by 18.5%.

These figures suggest that mid-sized chains have become a significant force in expansion, while smaller chains face pressure to contract. However, these growth rates describe changes in outlet numbers across brand-size categories, not individual outlet sales, profits or franchisees’ returns on investment.

For operators considering a restaurant franchise in China, a brand’s outlet count can help with initial screening, but it is no substitute for checking the performance of specific locations. Rapid expansion and the ability to run an outlet sustainably remain two separate questions.

Brands and franchisees are becoming more selective

In his presentation, Tang Xin argued that China’s restaurant franchise sector is entering a phase of mutual interdependence, with brand strength playing a greater role in franchise recruitment. Compared with earlier models driven by lead generation and franchise fees, brands are paying more attention to outlet profitability and operational support, while franchisees are scrutinising investment payback periods and the quality of opportunities more closely.

This assessment brings both parties’ attention back to day-to-day operations. Brands need not only to attract partners but also to explain what support they will provide after an outlet opens. Franchisees, in turn, need to examine the terms of an opportunity rather than focusing solely on the expansion targets promoted in recruitment materials.

The report does not equate growth in scale with benefits for every participant. Instead, the sustainability of individual outlets and the ability of support systems to keep pace with expansion are central to its findings.

Partnership models must align with legal and tax arrangements

The report also notes that traditional franchising, partnerships based on directly operated outlets and franchise-based partnerships are developing alongside one another, making relationships between brands and their partners more complex. It argues that expansion models must align with the underlying legal relationships and tax arrangements to prevent localised operational problems from accumulating into system-wide risks.

For those considering a franchise, the label attached to a partnership does not, on its own, explain each party’s actual responsibilities. When assessing an opportunity, prospective partners should verify the investment commitments, operating responsibilities, profit-sharing terms and exit arrangements, and check that these are clearly set out in the contract.

Practical tip: treat a brand’s size as a starting point for due diligence, not as an investment recommendation. Before signing, prioritise checks on outlet-level operating data, ongoing support and contractual responsibilities, and assess market forecasts separately from actual results.