Franchising and shopping centres: refurbishment drives growth

Growth in Italy’s shopping centre sector is largely focused on existing properties. This is the picture emerging from the Retail Real Estate Overview 2026, produced by Reno for Confimprese and presented in Rimini at the 14th Retail & Real Estate event. For the franchising community, the findings highlight a practical consideration: assess not only new openings, but also the opportunities created by shopping centre refurbishment.

A network of 1,006 centres, with an ageing property stock

The study counts 1,006 shopping centres in Italy, compared with 1,001 the previous year. The overall number has therefore changed little, while the age of the properties is increasingly significant: 67% are more than 20 years old, and the average age is 24. The comparison with Germany shows a similar proportion of centres over 20 years old, at 64%.

Confimprese’s interpretation is that growth will come primarily from refurbishment rather than new construction. This means looking beyond new locations on the retail map to understand how existing ones are changing.

Reno reports a typical opening rate of two to four new centres a year and just one closure in the past 12 months. New additions mentioned include Galleria Porta Vittoria in Milan, Waterfront Mall in Genoa and Fass Shopping Centre in Elmas. The latter is the largest of the new centres cited, with 52,800 square metres of lettable space.

For networks considering a shopping centre location, this picture suggests distinguishing between a new property and an existing centre undergoing improvements. These are two development routes that should be assessed on their own merits, without assuming that a location’s newness alone determines its commercial appeal.

Vacant units and rents: differences to consider

The picture of available retail space is uneven. In centres classified as premium by the study, vacancy rates remain between 3.1% and 5.2%. They rise to 8.3% in provincial centres and reach 15% in local centres.

However, this gap is not accompanied by an across-the-board fall in rents: according to the research, rents are stable or rising in every category examined. A higher proportion of empty units should therefore not automatically be taken to mean more favourable financial terms.

For a franchisee or an expanding network, the practical implication is that space availability and occupancy costs need to be considered together. The vacancy rate describes part of the context, but it is no substitute for assessing an individual offer. Equally, a category average is not enough to establish the prospects of a particular outlet.

Local visits and longer dwell times

The research also uses geolocation data from more than 100 centres to measure visiting patterns. 70% of visits originate less than 17 kilometres away, while a typical visit lasts 56 minutes.

The local catchment therefore emerges as an important factor in understanding the centres analysed. For anyone considering an opening, this is a reason to examine the surrounding area carefully, rather than automatically assuming that a shopping centre draws visitors from far afield.

Dwell time has increased by 4.5 minutes in three years. Food and drink outlets and entertainment can extend it by up to 15 minutes: a finding that highlights the importance of the centre’s overall mix, as well as the individual shop.

These indicators describe visits, not outlet revenue. For the franchising community, they can help shape the questions asked during site selection, but they do not, on their own, provide a sales forecast.

Through to 2028, keep extensions in view too

The pipeline of identified projects remains limited. The study lists four new centres: those in Cantù, Turin and Brescia are expected in 2027, while Messina is scheduled for 2028. These are planned openings and should be distinguished from centres already trading.

A further five projects involve extensions to existing properties, including Shopville Le Gru and Romagna Shopping Valley. Alongside refurbishment, these projects make it worthwhile for networks seeking new space to monitor centres that are already operating.

Practical takeaway: before choosing a location, compare rent, space availability, visitor catchment and planned work at the centre. Alongside tracking new openings, speaking to the owners of centres undergoing refurbishment allows you to assess a broader range of opportunities.