NZ casual employment rises 19.5% as staffing choices shift

New Zealand’s casual workforce grew by almost a fifth over the year to September 2026, highlighting a staffing question for the franchise community: how to meet changing demand without weakening the dependable teams that support customer service. Fixed-term employment also increased sharply, although permanent jobs remain overwhelmingly the most common arrangement.

What the employment figures show

Stats NZ figures reported by Franchise New Zealand on 11 November show casual employment increased by 19.5% over the year to 116,900 employees in the September 2026 quarter. Fixed-term employment rose by 18.9% to 50,900.

Those increases sit alongside a much larger permanent workforce. Permanent employment accounted for 91.3% of paid employees, a reminder that strong growth in temporary arrangements does not mean they have become the norm.

The distinction matters when interpreting the headline numbers. The figures describe New Zealand’s wider labour market, rather than employment within franchise businesses specifically. They provide context for franchise owners’ recruitment decisions, but should not be read as evidence that franchise networks have changed their staffing mix at the same rate.

Casual and fixed-term employment are also separate categories. Both can help businesses respond to temporary needs, but the reported increases should not be treated as a single, interchangeable form of recruitment.

Uncertainty behind recruitment decisions

In a recent New Zealand Herald opinion piece discussed by Franchise New Zealand, entrepreneur and Perpetual Guardian founder Andrew Barnes argues that the shift reflects growing caution among employers about committing to permanent staff.

Barnes, known internationally for championing the four-day working week, points to rising employment costs and uncertainty involving the economy, interest rates, the election and artificial intelligence. His interpretation is that some employers are restricting permanent recruitment and using contract labour to fill vacancies instead.

That is an explanation of the trend, rather than a cause established by the employment figures themselves. The data shows growth in casual and fixed-term work; it does not, on its own, establish why individual employers chose those arrangements.

For franchise owners considering their next appointment, the useful distinction is between an immediate staffing requirement and a longer-term business need. Uncertainty may influence recruitment decisions, but it does not make every vacancy temporary or every flexible arrangement the right operational choice.

Flexibility comes with operational trade-offs

Franchise New Zealand’s report identifies several reasons businesses may use non-permanent staff: fluctuating customer demand, seasonal peaks, staffing costs, specific projects and temporary business needs. Casual arrangements can provide cover during busy periods, while fixed-term contracts can add capacity for a defined temporary requirement.

The counterweight is continuity. The report highlights how high staff turnover and inconsistent availability can affect customer service and productivity, while increasing the time and cost involved in training new employees.

For the franchise community, this makes recruitment more than a question of filling the next roster. A business also needs to consider whether its staffing approach supports a dependable, experienced team. Flexibility has operational value, but so does retaining people who know the work and can deliver service consistently.

Barnes also raises concerns about job security and work quality. He argues that workers in non-permanent roles may experience unpredictable hours, less income certainty and fewer benefits associated with permanent employment. Those concerns bring the employee experience into a decision often framed primarily around business costs.

Getting the arrangement right

The report stresses the importance of understanding employer obligations when considering casual and fixed-term employment. It points franchise owners towards employment guidance and planning tools from Abhay Kolhe of MBIE’s Employment System Guidance & Engagement.

The immediate message is not that one employment model should replace another. Rather, the rise in non-permanent work makes careful decisions about the purpose of each role, the employment arrangement and the support needed for staff increasingly important.

Practical takeaway: Before filling a vacancy, identify whether the need is ongoing, seasonal or genuinely temporary. Check the proposed arrangement against current employment guidance, and weigh flexibility alongside training demands, reliable cover and team continuity.