Buying a Franchise in Belarus: How to Test Demand Before You Commit

A well-known brand may attract attention, but not necessarily customers in your chosen city. Before buying a franchise, it is important to test a specific hypothesis: who needs its product, in what circumstances and at what price? For a prospective franchisee, this is a way to choose a suitable brand rather than simply a convincing sales presentation. The steps below help you do this without signing a lease prematurely or opening a full-scale outlet.

1. Formulate a testable demand hypothesis

Start not by asking whether the franchise is popular, but by describing the purchase. Who is the customer, what need are they meeting, how often does it arise and what do they currently use? “Everyone in the city” is too broad an answer: it does not help you test the proposition.

For a food outlet, for example, different occasions matter: a quick lunch for staff at nearby workplaces, a family visit at the weekend or a purchase on the way home. One brand might suit the first occasion well but be a poor fit for the others. This is an example of what to test, not a universal characteristic of this type of business.

Draw up a brief outline of your hypothesis:

• Customer: a specific group, defined by more than just age and income.
• Occasion: the circumstances in which the need arises.
• Alternative: where and how the person currently meets that need.
• Offer: the product, service format and proposed price.
• Reason to switch: what would persuade the person to choose the new outlet.

Use the same questions when comparing several brands. Otherwise, you will be comparing the strength of their marketing materials rather than their fit with local demand.

2. Ask the franchisor for data from similar markets

Network-wide figures tell you little about a particular city in Belarus. Ask the franchisor to explain which existing outlets it considers comparable to your proposed business, and why. The surrounding area, buying habits, service format and competition all matter — not just population size.

Anonymised data on transaction numbers, repeat custom, the distribution of orders across the week and seasonal patterns can help you assess demand. Check the observation period and the source of the data. A launch supported by a major advertising campaign should not automatically be treated as representative of normal trading.

Distinguish between three types of information: actual sales at existing outlets, survey findings and assumptions made by the brand’s team. All can be useful, but they demonstrate different things. A follower count indicates a marketing audience, not the number of people willing to buy regularly.

If there are no comparable outlets, that does not prove the proposition is weak. It does, however, mean that your chosen city effectively becomes a new test of the business model. Bear this in mind when deciding how much time and money of your own you are prepared to spend on validation.

3. Study actual purchases, not just positive opinions

Observe places where potential customers already meet the need you have identified. Cover several time slots on weekdays and at weekends. Record the conditions: weather, nearby events and competitors’ promotions. A one-off burst of activity can easily be mistaken for steady demand.

Footfall and the number of paying customers are different measures. Where possible, note visits, queues, the types of orders placed and the alternatives available. Do not present external observations as precise information about another business’s sales: some orders may be placed remotely, while some visitors may buy nothing.

When talking to potential customers, ask about past behaviour:

• When did you last buy this type of product or service?
• Why did you choose that particular place?
• What was inconvenient?
• What usually puts you off making a purchase?
• How important are speed, choice, proximity and a familiar brand?

“Do you like this idea?” often prompts a polite answer. An account of a recent purchase is more useful. Do not limit your research to friends: they may support you personally without representing your future customer base.

4. Run a small test within the law

An initial test need not involve sales: you can show a neutral description of the business format, discuss the range and ask people to choose between several options at the proposed prices. Do not present yourself as an official partner of the brand unless you are authorised to do so.

Obtain the rights holder’s approval before using the name, logo, photographs or advertising materials. If you plan to trade temporarily or provide services, check the requirements for those activities separately. Calling something a “test” does not remove your obligations to customers.

In Belarus, franchising is specifically regulated by the Civil Code: Article 910 defines the comprehensive business licence agreement used for franchising, while Article 910-1 requires it to be in writing and registered with the patent authority. Registration is handled by the National Centre of Intellectual Property. Council of Ministers Resolution No. 346 governs the registration of these agreements, amendments to them and their termination.

Registering an agreement does not establish commercial demand. Checking the rights being granted and assessing customer interest serve different purposes. Similarly, inclusion in a franchise directory does not mean that a franchise’s figures have been independently verified.

5. Set your decision criteria in advance

Before running the test, write down your criteria for continuing negotiations. For example: a recurring need has been confirmed, the reason for choosing the new offer is clear, and the proposed price does not consistently put customers off. Do not adjust the criteria to suit a brand you like after receiving the responses.

Summarise the findings in a table: hypothesis, supporting evidence, objections and remaining uncertainty. Clearly distinguish what has been tested through behaviour from what is based only on what people say. Interest in a trial purchase does not yet demonstrate repeat demand, and a positive test does not guarantee that you will recoup your investment.

Practical takeaway: before buying a franchise, gather evidence of local need and of why customers would choose the brand. If that evidence is insufficient, further testing or postponing the deal is more useful than mistaking the network’s reputation for a ready-made stream of customers.